F The Business Cycle -- Social, Health, and Welfare Consequences

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APPENDIX F

The Business Cycle --
Social, Health, and Welfare Consequences

This Appendix displays important links and connections between structural changes in:

The money stock
Bank-money (specifically, commercial real estate loans)
The number of units foreclosed.
The number of therapeutic abortions.
The number of suicides (total male and female).
The separation rates (alive or dead) for heart disease:

myocardial infarctions or heart attacks (male and female), and

ischemic heart disease (male and female).

The Charts demonstrate that the time-distribution and time-structure patterns of money propagate way beyond the marketplace -- with serious social, health, and welfare implications. Two conclusions are unavoidable:

The origin of much social and welfare misery is economic.

To decrease misery and health care costs, overinvestments by speculators and usurers will have to be curbed.

Chart F-1
Chart F-2
Chart F-3
Chart F-4
Chart F-5
Chart F-6
Chart F-7

The Business Cycle1
Did Increases in the Number of Therapeutic Abortions Have an Economic Origin?
Links to Increases in the Money Stock

Chart F-1

Chart F-1 Did Increases in the Number of Therapeutic Abortions Have an Economic Origin? Links to Increases in the Money Stock

The Chart demonstrates clearly that economic policies can have serious adverse effects. Increases in the number of abortions appear to have had economic origins -- these have been much too large to be attributed to chance.

Sources: Statistics Canada, Canadian Economic Observer, Historical Statistical Supplement, 1994/95, Catalogue 11-210, July 1995 (Bank of Canada: monetary aggregates -- M1, M2, and M3); and J. Hagey, C. Nair, and S. Wadhera, Therapeutic Abortions 1993, Statistics Canada, Health Statistics Division, Catalogue 82-219, July 1995 (total therapeutic abortions and abortion rates).

The Business Cycle2
Did Increases in the Number of Therapeutic Abortions Have an Economic Origin?
Links to Increases in Commercial Real Estate Loans.

Chart F-2

Chart F-2 Did Increases in the Number of Therapeutic Abortions Have an Economic Origin? Links to Increases in Commercial Real Estate Loans

The number of total therapeutic abortions in Ontario increased from 27,028 in 1986 to 31,739 in 1989 (17.4%)! The increases in the number of abortions around recessionary periods have been much too large to be attributed to chance.

Sources: Royal Bank annual reports (loans by industry, as at September 30); and J. Hagey, C. Nair, and S. Wadhera, Therapeutic Abortions 1993, Statistics Canada, Health Statistics Division, Catalogue No. 82-219, July 1995 (total therapeutic abortions and abortion rates).

The Business Cycle3
The Number of Units Foreclosed (CMHC) and the Number of Suicides, Compared

Chart F-3

IS PROPERTY SACRED?

In The Gospel of Wealth and Other Timely Essays (New York, 1900), the American industrialist Andrew Carnegie asserted: "upon the sacredness of property civilization itself depends . . ." Therefore, the right of the lender to his money (and Carnegie's "legal right of the millionaire to his millions") should be the same as the legal right of the home-owning borrower to his property. Since property is sacred, it should be interesting to inquire if increases in the number of foreclosures (losses of property) were correlated with increases in the number of suicides (losses of life).

Chart F-3 The Number of Units Foreclosed (CMHC) and the Number of Suicides, Compared

Three periods, each marked by a decrease in the GDP (1981Q3-1982Q4, 1986Q4, and 1990Q2-1991Q1), are delineated. Note the three steps in the pattern for the first two periods: increase in the number of foreclosures (arrow a₁), recession (arrow b₁), increase in the number of suicides (arrow c₁). Note the change in the pattern after 1989 (the onset of the "credit crunch").

Sources: Andrew Carnegie, The Gospel of Wealth and Other Timely Essays (New York 1900), 1962, at 18; S. Julien, CMHC, private communication, July 3, 1996 (number of units foreclosed); Statistics Canada, 18 publications providing vital or mortality statistics for the identified periods: Catalogue 84-206 (1976-1986), Catalogues 82-003S and 82-003S12 (1987-1990), and Catalogues 84-209 and 84-209-XPB (1991-1994).

The Business Cycle4
Did Increases in the Hospital Discharge Rate
for "Heart Attacks" for Males Have an Economic Origin?

Chart F-4

HEART ATTACKS

DID INCREASES IN THE NUMBER OF HEART ATTACKS HAVE AN ECONOMIC ORIGIN?
The 1990Q2-1991Q1 recession was followed by considerable misery for many in Canada. During 1991-1992:

The number of foreclosures (CMHC) increased by 7,483.
The total number of "heart attack" separations (hospital discharges for acute myocardial infarctions -- alive or dead) increased by 3,478 (males: 2,269; females: 1,209).

The increases in the hospital discharge rate for "heart attacks" around recessionary periods are simply too large to be attributed to chance.

Chart F-4 Did Increases in the Hospital Discharge Rate for "Heart Attacks" for Males in Canada Have an Economic Origin?

Three periods, each marked by a decrease in the GDP (1981Q3-1982Q4, 1986Q4, and 1990Q2-1991Q1), are delineated. Note that the GDP also decreased in 1974Q3-1975Q2 and in 1979 Nov.-1980Q2.

Sources: S. Julien, CMHC, private communication, July 3, 1996 (number of units foreclosed); Statistics Canada, 13 publications providing hospital morbidity statistics for the identified periods: Catalogue 82-206 (1976-1985), Catalogue 82-003S (1985-1988), Catalogue 82-003S1 (1988-1990), Catalogue 82-216 (1990-1993), and Catalogue 82-216-XPB (1993-1994).

The Business Cycle5
Did Increases in the Hospital Discharge Rate
for "Heart Attacks" for Females Have an Economic Origin?

Chart F-5

Chart F-5 Did Increases in the Hospital Discharge Rate for "Heart Attacks" for Females in Canada Have an Economic Origin?

Three periods, each marked by a decrease in the GDP (1981Q3-1982Q4, 1986Q4, and 1990Q2-1991Q1), are delineated. Note that the GDP also decreased in 1974Q3-1975Q2 and in 1979 Nov.-1980Q2.

The Business Cycle6
Did Increases in the Hospital Discharge Rate
for Ischemic Heart Disease for Males Have an Economic Origin?

Chart F-6

ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE

The 1990Q2-1991Q1 recession was followed by considerable misery for many in Canada. During 1991-1992:

The number of foreclosures (CMHC) increased by 7,483.
The total number of ischemic heart disease separations (hospital discharges -- alive or dead) increased by 13,200 (males: 8,210; and females: 4,990).

The origin of much misery is economic. To decrease misery, and health care costs, overinvestments by speculators will have to be curbed.

Chart F-6 Did Increases in the Hospital Discharge Rate for Ischemic Heart Disease for Males in Canada Have an Economic Origin?

Three periods, each marked by a decrease in the GDP (1981Q3-1982Q4, 1986Q4, and 1990Q2-1991Q1), are delineated. Note that the GDP also decreased in 1974Q3-1975Q2 and in 1979 Nov.-1980Q2.

The Business Cycle7
Did Increases in the Hospital Discharge Rate
for Ischemic Heart Disease for Females Have an Economic Origin?

Chart F-7

Chart F-7 Did Increases in the Hospital Discharge Rate for Ischemic Heart Disease for Females in Canada Have an Economic Origin?

Three periods, each marked by a decrease in the GDP (1981Q3-1982Q4, 1986Q4, and 1990Q2-1991Q1), are delineated. Note that the GDP also decreased in 1974Q3-1975Q2 and in 1979 Nov.-1980Q2.